Quick Definition
A favorite is the fighter a sportsbook expects to win a fight, marked with a minus sign in front of the odds. The bigger that number, the more one-sided oddsmakers think the matchup is.
What is a favorite?
In MMA betting, every matchup gets split into two roles: favorite and underdog. Sportsbooks assign the favorite tag based on things like recent form, fighting style, physical attributes, and how each fighter has performed against similar opponents.
That assessment shows up directly in the odds. A favorite carries a minus sign, such as -200 or -450, and the underdog carries a plus sign. Some fights land close enough to even that neither side is favored, a situation sportsbooks call a pick ’em.
Bettors and commentators also call the favorite the “chalk,” a term that crossed over from horse racing into most American sports betting. A heavily favored fighter with especially lopsided odds, such as -600 or higher, is sometimes described as an “odds-on favorite.”
Favorite vs. underdog
| Favorite | Underdog | |
|---|---|---|
| Odds sign | Minus (−) | Plus (+) |
| Expected outcome | Win | Loss |
| Bet needed to win $100 | More than $100 | Less than $100 |
| Payout on a $100 bet | Under $100 profit | Over $100 profit |
| Example | -250 favorite | +200 underdog |
How odds mark the favorite
Sportsbooks price MMA fights on the moneyline, using American odds. Minus numbers show how much you’d need to risk to profit $100; plus numbers show how much a $100 bet would return. Put plainly, a -250 favorite needs a $250 bet to net $100, while a +200 underdog turns that same $100 into $200 in profit.
Those figures also translate into an implied probability. Roughly speaking, a -250 favorite reflects something close to a 71% chance of winning in the sportsbook’s model, while a +200 underdog sits closer to 33%. Add both sides together, and the total runs a bit over 100%, since the sportsbook builds in a margin on every fight.
The size of the gap between the two numbers shows how confident the market is. A -140 favorite is close to a coin flip. A -600 favorite is treated as close to a sure thing, though MMA rarely cooperates with sure things.
How often do favorites actually win in MMA?
Favorites win more than they lose, but the margin is closer than many casual bettors assume. Tracked across thousands of UFC bouts, favorites have won at a rate of roughly 68%, or about two out of every three fights, according to LegalSportsReport.
That means roughly one in three favorites loses. MMA’s one-on-one format leaves no room for a teammate to cover a bad night, so a single mistake or a well-timed strike can undo a fight that looked lopsided on paper.
Common misconceptions about favorites
The biggest one is treating a heavy favorite as a guaranteed win. In 2020, Mariya Agapova went in as a -1400 favorite against Shana Dobson at a UFC Fight Night event, and Dobson still won by TKO as a +950 underdog, the biggest underdog win by closing odds in UFC history, according to LegalSportsReport. It happens at the title level too: at UFC 69 in 2007, +850 underdog Matt Serra won by TKO over favorite Georges St-Pierre to take the welterweight belt.
Another misconception is assuming the betting favorite and the objectively better fighter are always the same. Odds reflect how oddsmakers and betting volume weigh a matchup, and a fighter can be the favorite on the board while still walking into a stylistic problem the numbers don’t fully capture.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is chalk the same thing as a favorite?
Yes. Chalk is slang for the favorite, often used to describe a fighter carrying especially short odds.
What is a pick ’em?
A fight with no clear favorite or underdog. Both fighters carry odds close to even, so the sportsbook isn’t leaning either way.
Do favorites have to cover a spread in MMA?
No. MMA betting runs on the moneyline rather than a point spread, so a favorite only has to win the fight outright, not by a set margin or method.
Can two fighters both be favorites in the same fight?
No. One side is favored, and the other is the underdog, unless the matchup is close enough to be scored a pick ’em.
Sources
- ESPN, “Sports Betting Glossary: Odds, lines, spreads, futures and more.” Accessed September 2026.
https://www.espn.com/espn/betting/story/_/id/38897025/sports-betting-glossary-odds-lines-spreads-futures-more - LegalSportsReport, “UFC Odds & MMA Betting Lines.” Accessed September 2026.
https://www.legalsportsreport.com/odds/ufc/ - Covers.com, “Best UFC Odds 2026 – UFC/MMA Betting Lines.” Accessed September 2026.
https://www.covers.com/sport/mma/ufc/odds - BetMGM, “How Do UFC Odds Work? How to Read UFC Odds.” Accessed September 2026.
https://sports.betmgm.com/en/blog/ufc/how-do-ufc-odds-work-how-to-read-ufc-odds-bm05/ - Britannica Money, “Sports Betting Terms Explained.” Accessed September 2026.
https://www.britannica.com/money/sports-betting-terminology
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